Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, will defeat Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 in an election that most analysts call a toss-up.
Nine battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and Nebraska’s second congressional district will decide the election. These states combine for 108 electoral votes; 270 are needed to win.
Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
AP projects Donald Trump as the winner of Pennsylvania, shutting the door on Hillary Clinton’s path to 270 electoral votes on Nov. 9, 2016. BloombergPolitics
Most election insiders feel that Pennsylvania will decide the election’s winner because it has the most electoral votes out of any battleground state. Donald Trump is seeking to flip Pennsylvania after President Joe Biden won in 2020 by 1.2%, one of the closest states in that election.
Democratic Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman feels anyone “can see the intensity” of Trump’s support in Pennsylvania. “There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging [Trump’s support in Pennsylvania] exists, and anybody who spends time driving around, you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing,” Fetterman told New York Times podcast host Lulu Garcia-Navarro.
Trump is polling ahead of where he has been in the last two elections in Pennsylvania. Out of the top five most accurate polls from 2020 (Atlas Intel, Wick, Trafalgar Group, InsiderAdvantage, and Harris Insights & Analytics), Trump leads by 1% in each poll, except for Harris Insights & Analytics, which hasn’t released a poll for 2024, per Real Clear Politics.
In addition, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average has Trump ahead by 0.4%, an average that includes both Republican and Democratic-leaning polls. This is significant because the RCP average had Joe Biden ahead by 1.2% in 2020, which is identical to the final result. Polling points to a Trump victory in Pennsylvania, and it’s unlikely that RCP will nail the Pennsylvania margins again, so Trump should win by around 2%.
Donald Trump will win Nevada’s six electoral votes.
Democrats have won Nevada in the past four elections; however, Trump has come within 2.5% in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Donald Trump points to his supporters at a campaign event at the World Market Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sept. 13, 2024. Migson Lau/KSNV
Per The New York Times, Latino voters “make up more than 20% of the Nevada electorate” and are “losing faith in government” in Nevada, a state that mostly has Democrats in power. Biden beat Trump by 26% in Nevada in 2020 and 22% nationwide among Latino voters; however, Harris likely won’t be as successful. Per the New York Times/Siena poll, Harris only leads Trump by 14% nationwide, with 8% undecided. If Latino voters in Nevada vote the same way as the rest of the nation, it seems that Trump will win Nevada.
Saint Paul’s junior Luke Murphy disagrees with the perceived republican polling gains on Latino voters, feeling the Republicans don’t make enough of an effort to appeal to Latino voters. “Democrats don’t have to put in as much effort to appeal to Latino voters because many people don’t like the strict immigration laws from Republicans,” Murphy stated.
“[Trump] insults Latinos, scapegoats, [and] immigrants,” Harris told her supporters.
Kamala Harris waves to her supporters at a campaign rally at the Reno Events Center in Reno, Nevada, on Oct. 31, 2024. Getty Images/AFP Photo
The RCP average has Trump leading by 0.6% in Nevada; it nailed Biden’s margin of victory in 2020. Atlas Intel gives Trump a 3% lead, while InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group call this race a tie, per RCP.
With polling showing a very tight race in Nevada, it’ll be a hard-fought race between Trump and Harris; however, Harris’s struggles with Latino voters point to a Trump victory by around 2%.
Kamala Harris will win Nebraska’s Second Congressional District’s one electoral vote.
This is Harris’s strongest stance in any battleground state/congressional district. Biden won this district by 6.5%, which Democrats have only ever won twice in a presidential election; however, Harris looks to make it a third time.
Kamala Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, excites the crowd at a rally in Omaha, Nebraska, on Aug. 17, 2024. AP Photo/Bonnie Ryan
Little polling has been released for this district, but Harris has led by 12% in the New York Times/Siena poll, 9% in the CNN poll, and 8% in the Economist/YouGov poll, per RCP. This district is still considered a toss-up because of the lack of polling, especially with Trump’s lack of focus on this district. Therefore, Harris should win by around 8%.
Donald Trump will win Georgia’s 16 electoral votes.
Georgia used to be a solidly Republican state until Biden pulled off an upset victory in 2020 over Trump by just 0.2%, the closest state in the 2020 election. Georgia is a must-win state for Trump, but it seems that he’s on his way to winning this state.
All of the most accurate pollsters from 2020 agree that Trump will win Georgia. Atlas Intel and Trafalgar Group give Trump a 2% lead, and InsiderAdvantage gives Trump a 1% lead, per RCP. Trump also leads by 1.7% in the RCP average, and no polls factored into the average have Harris leading except for the New York Times/Siena poll. Trump is clearly in the driver’s seat in Georgia, with few believing Harris will win it, so Trump should win by around 3%.
South Carolina Republican Governor Lindsey Graham feels that if Trump loses Georgia, “it could be a very long night.”
“If we [Republicans] win Georgia, we’re going to be well on our way to 270 electoral votes. If we lose Georgia, it could be a very long night,” Graham told Fox News Sunday host Jacqui Heinrich.
Lindsey Graham comes to support Trump at a campaign rally in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Feb. 28, 2020. Patrick Semansky/AP
Donald Trump will win North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes.
North Carolina is the only current battleground state that Trump won in 2020, pulling off an upset and beating Biden by 1.3%; however, Trump could be in danger of losing this state.
North Carolina polls are all over the place, from Rasmussen Reports giving Trump a 5% lead to Quinnipiac giving Harris a 3% lead, per RCP. However, the most accurate polls from 2020 are in agreement, predicting a Trump victory; Atlas Intel and Insider Advantage give Trump a 2% lead, while Trafalgar Group gives Trump a 3% lead, per RCP. This puts Trump in a strong position based on accurate polling; however, these polls may not factor in the circumstances in North Carolina.
Tropical Storm Helene blazed through the western part of North Carolina in late September 2024, an area with primarily Republican counties, potentially limiting voter turnout.
Tropical Storm Helene blazes through North Carolina, showing devastating aftermath in Lake Lure, North Carolina. Marco Bello/Reuters
Republican nominee for the Governor’s race in North Carolina, Mark Robinson, has been under fire by Republicans and Democrats after explicit comments he made in the past. Atlas Intel shows Robinson trailing Democratic Nominee Josh Stein by 11%. This raises the question: will North Carolina voters split the ticket, voting for Stein and Trump, or will they only vote Democratic?
If many voters don’t split the ticket, Harris should win; however, there’s no evidence that voters will do that yet. Although circumstances point to a Harris win in North Carolina, polling points to a Trump win. North Carolina seems to be coming down to the wire, but Trump should win by around 0.5%
Kamala Harris will win Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes.
Democrats have won Minnesota for the past 15 presidential elections; however, Republicans have been closing the gap. Trump only lost by 1.5% to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, the closest any Republican has gotten to winning Minnesota since Ronald Reagan in 1984; however, Trump had a poor performance in 2020, losing to Biden by 7.1%.
Megyn Kelly and Arnon Mishkin discuss shockingly close election results in Minnesota on Fox News on Nov. 9, 2016. Fox News
Many believe that Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, being the Governor of Minnesota, will help her win this state. Indeed, Harris must win Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes; otherwise, she will lose the election convincingly. The good news for Harris is that polling suggests she’s in a good position in this state. While little polling from Minnesota has been done, each poll points to a Harris victory. Atlas Intel gives Harris a 2% lead, per RCP, while the RCP average gives Harris a 4.0% lead, but due to the little polling in Minnesota, it’ll be hard to predict.
If the rest of the mid-western states shift to Republicans, so will Minnesota. While it’ll be closer than most predict, Harris should win Minnesota by 2%.
Donald Trump will win Michigan’s 15 electoral votes.
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to win Michigan since Ronald Reagon in 1984; though, Joe Biden flipped Michigan in 2020, winning by 2.8%. Michigan looks to come down to the wire once again.
Polls underestimated Trump in 2020 in Michigan. For example, the RCP average gave Biden a 4.2% lead, even after factoring out heavily Democratic-leaning polls. In this election, the RCP average gives Harris a 0.5% lead; conversely, the most accurate pollsters from 2020 disagree. Atlas Intel and Trafalgar Group give Trump leads of 2% and 1%, respectively, while InsiderAdvantage calls this race a tie, per RCP.
Donald Trump arrives at his first campaign rally with his new running mate, JD Vance, at the Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on July 20, 2024. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
According to the New York Times/Siena poll, the top issue in Michigan is the economy, which is the focus of working-class voters.
Trump has been pushing to win over the working class voters as he looks to bring them to a ‘golden-age’ if elected. “America will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than ever before,” Trump told his supporters in a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Saint Paul senior Matthew Awbrey feels voters are not buying Harris’s narrative regarding the working class. “Harris tries too hard to appeal to working-class voters; they can see through her lies. Clearly, she’s not genuine,” Awbrey said.
Harris must win Michigan’s 15 electoral votes because it’s part of the ‘blue wall states’: Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Michigan will come down to the wire, potentially deciding the election. Trump looks to shut the door on Harris’s path to 270 electoral votes, winning Michigan by around 1.5%.
Kamala Harris will win New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.
New Hampshire has been decided by under 10% in every election since 1988. It is a state that is usually hard-fought for by both parties, even though it only has four electoral votes. After Joe Biden’s 7.3% victory in New Hampshire, Harris looks to continue the Democrats’ success, although she may struggle.
New Hampshire has been considered a likely Harris win until the final stretch of the campaign cycle. Little polling has been done for this state, but the RCP average gives Harris a 3.5% lead. The most accurate pollster from 2020 that has released a poll for this state is Rasmussen Reports, giving Harris a 1% lead.
Although New Hampshire is small, Harris must win it because she likely won’t do better in most other battleground states. Harris should win by around 3%, but that’s not enough comfort, considering how much more New Hampshire favored Democrats in 2020 compared to other battleground states.
Donald Trump will win Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
Wisconsin has been decided by under 1% in the past two elections, with Trump pulling off a major upset, winning by 0.7% in 2016, and Biden flipping the state, winning by 0.6% in 2020. Wisconsin is a must-win state for Harris because it’s a ‘blue wall state.’
Kamala Harris introduces her new running mate, Tim Walz, at a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Aug. 20, 2024. Reuters/Kevin Lamarque
Wisconsin has had some of the worst polling in 2020. For example, the RCP average had Biden winning Wisconsin by 6.7%, 6% off of the actual result, even after factoring out some Democratic-leaning polls. The RCP average gives Harris a 0.4% lead, potentially a horrible sign for Harris if the polling miss in Wisconsin occurs again. Atlas Intel and InsiderAdvantage give Trump a 1% lead, while Trafalgar Group calls the race a tie, per RCP.
While it’s unlikely that the polling miss in Wisconsin will be as bad as it was in 2020, it’s a bad sign for Harris to have many polls giving Trump a lead. Wisconsin will be close, but Trump should win by around 1%.
Donald Trump pulls off a historic upset, defeating Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin presidential election on Nov. 9, 2016. CNN
Donald Trump will win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
After five straight Republican victories in presidential elections, Biden flipped Arizona in 2020, winning it by 0.3%, though Arizona looks to be the easiest state for Trump to flip in this election. This is a must-win state for Trump because other battleground states likely won’t be as friendly to Trump as Arizona.
Donald Trump introduces his newest endorser, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., at a campaign rally in Glendale, Arizona, on Aug. 23, 2024. Ross D. Franklin/AP
Polling puts Trump in a strong position in Arizona, potentially surpassing his 3.5% victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trafalgar Group, InsiderAdvantage, and Atlas Intel give Trump leads of 2%, 3%, and 6%, respectively, per RCP. The RCP average gives Trump a 2.3% lead; the average gave Biden a 0.9% lead in 2020, which was only 0.6% off the final result.
In addition to Nevada, Arizona has one of the largest Latino electorates, making up 25% of its electorate, doubling the amount since 2000. As mentioned previously, Biden won the Latino vote nationally by 22%, very close to his 24% win of Latino voters over Trump. Also, as stated before, the New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris only leading Trump by 14% nationwide among Latino voters, a far cry from Biden’s 2020 margin. As long as Latino voters have similar margins to the rest of the Nation, Trump is in the driver’s seat in Arizona and should win by around 4%.
Overall, Donald Trump will secure 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226.
It’s worth noting that most gambling sites consider Trump a betting favorite in this race. For instance, BetMGM has Trump as a -167 favorite, which equates to him having an implied 61.74% chance of defeating Harris.
Regardless of who wins, this election cycle has been one of the craziest, with Trump nearly getting assassinated twice, Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, and foreign conflicts intensifying. This may be the highest-stakes election this century, having many Americans worried about the future.
Despite all the chaos, Saint Paul’s Civics teacher, Paul Scoriels, feels Americans don’t have to stress out over the election results and can move forward. ‘’No matter the election results, we can live out our lives. The president is just one person; we should care more about who controls the House of Representatives and the Senate,’’ Scoriels told his A-period Civics class.
This election will be close and may take days before a winner is projected. The first polls close at 5 p.m. CT tonight, starting with parts of Indiana and Kentucky.
Feature Photo Credit: AP
Published By: CallahanLeahy2025
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